American armored division in Poland
Perhaps the most important element of the American presence in Poland is the Redzikowo base under construction, part of the Aegis Ashore system. According to the head of the Missile Defense Agency, General Samuel Graves, due to construction delays, it will not be commissioned until 2020. The photo shows the official start of the construction of the base with the participation of Polish and American officials.
According to media reports in recent weeks, the Department of National Defense has made a proposal to the US administration to establish a permanent US military presence in Poland. The published document "Proposal for a permanent US presence in Poland" indicates the desire of the Polish Ministry of Defense to finance this initiative at the level of 1,5-2 billion dollars and deploy an American armored division or other comparable force in Poland. The two main questions in this context are: is such a serious permanent US military presence in Poland possible, and does it even make sense?
Information about the Polish proposal was leaked not only to the national media, basically all kinds, but also to the most important Western news portals, as well as Russian ones. The Department of National Defense was also relatively quick to respond to media speculation, while the US Department of Defense declined to answer the question, saying through its representative that it was the subject of bilateral negotiations between the US and Poland, no decisions were made. and the content of the negotiations remains confidential. In turn, the Secretary of State of the Ministry of National Defense Wojciech Skurkiewicz, in an interview in early June, confirmed that intensive negotiations were underway to establish a permanent American base in Poland.
The discussion that flared up among experts and industry journalists highlighted the division into unequivocal enthusiasts of the ministry’s proposals and those who, although they had a positive attitude towards the allied presence in Poland, pointed out the shortcomings associated with the proposed proposal and possible other ways to solve it. management of the proposed funds. The last and least numerous group were commentators who took the position that an increase in the American presence in Poland is contrary to our national interests and will bring more trouble than good. In the opinion of the author of this article, both denial and excessive enthusiasm in this case are not sufficiently justified, and the decision to send American troops into Poland as part of a tank division and spend the equivalent of about 5,5 to even about 7,5 billion zlotys should be the subject of public discussion and detailed discussion in circles interested in this issue. This article should be considered as part of that discussion.
Arguments of the Ministry of National Defense of Poland and its proposal
The proposal is a document of almost 40 pages, including annexes pointing to the need to establish a permanent presence of US troops in Poland using various arguments. The first part describes the history of US-Polish relations and recent events related to Russian aggression in Ukraine. The Polish side cites numerical and financial arguments and points to Warsaw's high level of defense spending (2,5% of GDP by 2030, expenditures at the level of 20% of the defense budget for technical re-equipment) and the recently released draft budget of Warsaw. The Department of Defense for fiscal year 2019, where the increase in spending on the so-called European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) to more than 6,5 billion US dollars.
The views of, among other things, the State Department, President Donald Trump, General Philip Breedlove and General Marek Milli both on Poland and on the need to strengthen the American land presence in Europe, as well as on the fact that Warsaw has repeatedly supported the initiatives implemented by NATO and Washington on throughout the years.
The second element of the Defense Ministry's arguments are geopolitical considerations and the threat from an increasingly aggressive Russian Federation. The authors of the document point to the Russian strategy of destroying the existing security structure in Europe and eliminating or reducing the American presence on the Old Continent. A significant presence of American troops in Poland would reduce the level of uncertainty throughout Central Europe and make local allies more confident that American support in the event of a possible conflict with Russia would not be provided too late. This should also become an additional deterrent for Moscow. Particularly important in the document is a fragment that refers to the Isthmus of Suwalki as a key zone for maintaining continuity between the Baltic countries and the rest of NATO. According to the authors' reasoning, the permanent presence of significant American forces in Poland would significantly reduce the risk of losing this part of the territory and, thus, cutting off the Baltic. In addition, the document also mentions the 1997 act on the foundations of relations between NATO and Russia. The authors point out that the provisions contained in it are not an obstacle to establishing a permanent allied presence in Central and Eastern Europe, and this absence was due to Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine and its assertive actions towards NATO countries. Thus, the establishment of a permanent US military base in Poland will force Russia to retreat from such interference. In support of their arguments, the authors of the document refer to the work of the state-run Congressional Research Service on Russian activity in Europe in recent years and the report of the US Department of Defense in the context of Ukraine.
Knowing the costs of moving a US Army armored division to Poland, the US authorities' awareness of the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region, and Moscow's actions in recent years, the Department of National Defense offered to cover most of the financial costs associated with the redeployment of US Army soldiers and equipment to Poland. An agreement on co-financing and participation of Poland at the level of 1,5-2 billion US dollars could be based on rules similar to those in force today, for example, the US agreement - NATO Enhanced Forward Presence in Poland, or regarding the construction of a missile defense system in Redzikovo, about which below. The US side is offered "considerable flexibility" in building the infrastructure necessary to base such a significant force, as well as using the Polish capabilities available in this regard and providing the necessary transport links to facilitate the creation of American infrastructure in Poland. It is important to note that the Polish side clearly indicates that US companies will be responsible for a significant part of the construction of the necessary facilities and will be exempt from most taxes, government regular supervision of this type of work and facilitate tender procedures, which in turn will positively affect the timing and cost. construction of this type of infrastructure. This last part of the Polish proposal seems to be the most controversial in terms of spending the proposed amount.
