Let's enjoy our phones before there are brain implants. Smartphone stagnation
We used to change our smartphone every year and a half on average. Today it is usually once every three years. The experts who talk about it, depending on their attitude, either attribute it to a lack of real innovation for a few years, or because phones have gotten so good that there's no reason to replace them.
We used to just telephoneswho sometimes took (bad) pictures, sometimes let you listen to music. which became a portable command center. and manufacturers competed on ideas for new features, apps, gadgets, and bells and whistles.
And so we come to the middle of the second decade of the 2015 century, when the madness is over. Published then, XNUMX Gartner report left no doubt that the demand for new mobile devices decreased. Even the Chinese market, where as much as 30 percent drove. of all smartphones sold in the world is stagnating. The reasons for replacing smartphones have become less and less every year.
Gartner data in what is considered a breakthrough year in 2015, the smartphone market was supposed to experience extreme disruption in the coming years. The mid-range shelf was to remain in place, and only the cheapest and most expensive devices were to grow. However, a roundup conducted by YouGov last year suggests otherwise. Sales of the most expensive cameras fell significantly, while sales of mid-range cameras rose (1). Only growth was in line with expectations sales results of inexpensive phones.
1. Declining popularity of high-end phones.
The pandemic has turned into a disaster for the market. Already quoted Gartner reported about it. decline in global smartphone sales by 20 percent in the second quarter of 2020 to 295 million units. The largest companies recorded a huge decline in sales. More than Samsung - by a quarter, Huawei - by almost 7 percent. Apple by a fraction of a percent, but also in the red. Of the world giants, only Xiaomi has grown. In total, 2020 ended with sales of just over 1,3 billion smartphones, a major decline from 2019, which saw a total of 1,5 billion units sold.
Economic uncertainty and the crisis discourage purchases and investment, but analysts are talking about a recovery in 2021 and purchases of devices that support the new standard. According to a February 2021 Gartner forecast, global smartphone sales to end users could reach approximately 1,5 billion units by the end of this year. This would mean an increase of approximately 11,4 percent. compared to last year and a return to the state from 2019. That is, indeed, an increase compared to 2020, but in general, only a return to the stagnant level that can be seen in the smartphone sales statistics for about five years (2).
2. Number of smartphones annually sold to users from 2007 to 2021 (in millions)
Add gigabytes and megapixels
For years looking for a way to overcome smartphone stagnation. The most popular way of resuscitation for many years is simply the addition of stronger components. We have come to use 5nm octa-core processors in phones such as Snapdragon 800, Apple A14, Samsung Exynos 2100, HiSilicon's Kirin 9000, which not only support the 3,13G network, but also have clock speeds, with Kirin XNUMX . GHz is at the forefront, no worse than that of top-end laptops.
The most powerful are 16 GB of RAM. Cameras in cameras entered the field of 8K video recording and manufacturers have not stopped chasing the number of added megapixels of resolution, although they do it on a smaller scale, adding more lenses, wide-angle, macro, four cameras, seven or even more per device. Last year, a comprehensive report on the subject was published in MT.
Despite this amazing performance, many people say it is. smartphone development has stopped and now it comes down to just cosmetic differences between generations. At a certain level, the average user ceases to notice the difference between super-efficient processors, and the human eye no longer distinguishes resolutions above 8K. The element reviving smartphone technology and the market is and certainly will be the advent of the 5G network. However, this momentum is somewhat external to smartphone technology. This cannot be called a technological leap in smartphones per se, but rather in their adaptation to network innovations.
For years, we've seen encouraging visions and announcements of flexible, flexible (3) devices that flex and go beyond the devices' rigid screen layout. He was the leader in this Samsungwhich he made available almost two years ago Galaxy Fold model test. It turned out to be a misfire with slightly annoying defects, cracks and delaminations on the screen of a loud phone, as reported by journalists and bloggers who tested the device. In the end, the company finalized the device and you can buy it normally, but you can’t hear how it conquers the market.
We can talk about two currents of ideas to increase the display area. Some of them fold and fold like Samsung screens. The second is to expand the screen into a shell, as Motorola does in the new versions of the Razr phone.
Chinese OPPO but decided to go further and on a new model OPPO X 2021 adds a motor that drives the drum to expand and enlarge the screen of a folding screen smartphone. A similar solution to OPPO was demonstrated at CES 2021 by TCL and LG. TCL even showed off an ancient scroll-like device in which the display unrolls like a papyrus (4).
The solution, in which instead of the power of human hands to unfold the screen, we have a mechanism that enlarges the screen under the action of a motor, seems to be technically more advanced and more reliable. Another advantage is the ability to reduce the size of the phone in its basic form and increase the display as needed. However, the mechanical system also means higher power consumption and the battery problem is still far from being solved. TCL says it plans to release a foldable or foldable phone in 2021 and LG has confirmed this. Foldable LG will go on sale this year. Who knows if this won't be the innovation we've been waiting for.
4. Drop-down display displayed by TCL
Smartphone as a step towards integration with machines
One day, not soon, but certainly sooner than you think, smartphones will completely disappear. Just like pagers and fax machines before them. To be clear, we are at least a decade away from any significant change in smartphone usage. But Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook or Elon Mask step by step they are already creating a new order in which there will be no place for the traditionally understood smartphone.
There is no doubt that e smartphones were pioneering devices. They were small enough to take anywhere and powerful enough to handle the growing number of daily tasks and entertainment needs. However, in truth, a smartphone is actually nothing more than a compact computer model with a touch function. Manufacturers have been experimenting with new forms of device-user interaction for a long time. Microsoft, Facebook, Google and their backed startup Magic Leap are working on building standalone augmented reality devices that present images in three dimensions in front of the user's eyes. Apparently, Apple is also working on this type of hardware.
Alex Kipman of Microsoft, the inventor of the HoloLens, said in an interview with the Business Insider website that augmented reality technology could successfully replace smartphones, TVs, anything with a screen. A device lying in a pocket or some kind of docking station will not bring much benefit, since all calls, messages, notifications, movies and games are displayed right in front of the user's eyes as an image superimposed on the real world.
Experts say that over time, additional gadgets have appeared in the proposals of manufacturers, such as amazon echo speakers or AirPods headphones, will play an increasingly important role; For example Apple wireless headphones is a shortcut for the Siri assistant - from the application directly to the user's ear, bypassing the smartphone as equipment. Virtual assistants like Siri, Samsung's Bixby, and Microsoft's Alexa Amazon and Cortana are getting smarter and smarter. However, it takes some time for the rudiments of new technologies, bypassing devices such as smartphones and computers, to become completely independent.
If we add to this the control of devices through thought, then the visions are filled with goosebumps. Elon Mask argues that due to advances in artificial intelligence technology, humans will have to "expand" their perception of the world just to keep up with computers. Not only does he think that we will finally connect the human body, the brain with the flow of digital information with the help of implantable implants.
From this point of view, the smartphone to which we are so attached and on the screen of which we constantly look is only a stage on the way to an even closer integration of people and their daily life, work, study and entertainment with digital technologies. Will they replace him smart glasses or maybe it will remain as a “control center”, it’s not so important. The technique was used as a vehicle and the test site will not disappear anywhere. It will develop.
