Electric car yesterday, today and tomorrow: Part 1
A series on the new challenges to electric mobility
Statistical analysis and strategic planning are very difficult sciences and the current situation with the health, socio-political situation in the world proves it. At the moment, no one can say what will happen after the end of the pandemic from the point of view of the automotive business, mainly because it is not known when it will be. Will the requirements regarding carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption in the world and in Europe in particular change? How this, combined with low oil prices and reduced treasury revenues, will affect electric mobility. Will the increase in their subsidies continue or will the opposite happen? Will the aid money (if any) for the car companies be given with a requirement for investments in "green" technologies.
China, which is already shaking off the crisis, will certainly continue to look for a way to become a leader in the new mobility, since it has not become a technological vanguard in the old one. Most carmakers today still sell mainly conventionally powered cars, but have invested heavily in electric mobility in recent years, so they are ready for different post-crisis scenarios. Of course, even the darkest predictive scenarios do not involve something as drastic as what is happening. But as Nietzsche says, "What doesn't kill me makes me stronger." How car companies and subcontractors will change their philosophy and what their health will be remains to be seen. There will certainly be work for lithium-ion cell manufacturers. And before we continue with the technological solutions in the field of electric motors and batteries, we will remind you of some parts of the history and their platform solutions.
Something like an introduction…
The road is the goal. This seemingly simple thought of Lao Tzu fills with content the dynamic processes taking place in the automotive industry at the moment. It is true that various periods in its history have also been described as "dynamic" - such as the two oil crises, but it is a fact that today there are indeed significant processes of transformation in this area. Perhaps the best picture of stress would be described by the planning, development or supplier liaison departments. What will be the volumes and relative share of electric cars in total car production in the coming years? How to structure the supply of components such as lithium-ion cells for batteries and who will be the supplier of materials and equipment for the production of electric motors and power electronics. Whether to invest in own development or to invest, buy shares and enter into contracts with other suppliers of electric drive manufacturers. Should new body platforms be designed in accordance with the specifics of the drive in question, should the existing ones be adapted or should new universal platforms be created. A huge amount of questions on the basis of which quick decisions must be made, but on the basis of serious analyzes. Because they all involve huge costs on the part of companies and restructuring, which in no way should harm the development work on the classic propulsion with internal combustion engines (including the diesel engine). However, after all, it is they who bring the profits of the car companies and must provide the financial resources for the development and introduction into production of the new electric models. Ah, now there is a crisis…
The firewood of diesel
Analyzes based on statistics and forecasts are difficult work. According to many forecasts from 2008, nowadays the price of oil should have exceeded $ 250 per barrel. Then came the economic crisis and all interpolations collapsed. The crisis was over, and VW Bordeaux proclaimed the diesel engine and became the standard-bearer of the diesel idea with programs called "Diesel Day" or D-Day, by analogy with the Normandy landings day. His ideas really began to germinate when it turned out that the launch of diesel was not done in the most honest and clean way. Statistics do not account for such historical events and adventures, but neither industrial nor social life is sterile. Politics and social networks hastened to anathematize the diesel engine without any technological basis, and Volkswagen itself poured oil on the fire and as a form of compensatory mechanism threw it on the stake, and in the flames proudly waved the flag of electric mobility.
Many carmakers have been caught in this trap by fast-paced developments. The religion underlying D-Day quickly became a heresy, transformed into E-day, and everyone frantically began to ask themselves the above questions. In just over four years - from the diesel scandal in 2015 until today, even the most outspoken electrosceptics have given up resistance to electric cars and started looking for ways to construct such cars. Even Mazda, which claimed "their hearts are warm" and Toyota, so selflessly attached to their hybrids that they have introduced absurd marketing messages such as "self-charging hybrids" are now ready with a common electric platform.
Now all car manufacturers, without exception, are beginning to include electric or electrified cars in their range. Here we will not go into details who exactly how many electric and electrified models will introduce in the coming years, not only because such numbers pass and go like autumn leaves, but also because this crisis will change many points of view. Plans are important for production planning departments, but as we mentioned above, "the road is the goal". Like a ship moving at sea, visibility to the horizon changes and new perspectives open up behind it. Battery prices are falling, but so is the price of oil. Politicians today make a decision, but over time it leads to drastic job cuts and new decisions return to the status quo. And then everything suddenly stops…
However, we are far from believing that electric mobility does not occur. Yes, it is "happening" and will probably continue to happen. But as we have repeatedly said about us in auto motor und sport, knowledge is a top priority and with this series we want to help expand this knowledge.
Who will do what - in the near future?
The magnetism of Elon Musk and the induction that Tesla (like the company's widely used asynchronous or induction motors) exerts on the automotive industry are incredible. If we leave aside the schemes for acquiring capital by the company, we can't help but admire the man who found his niche in the automotive industry and pushed his "start-up" among the mastodons. I remember visiting the Detroit show in 2010, when at a small stand Tesla showed a section of the aluminum platform of the future Model S. Apparently worried, the stand engineer was not honored and with special attention by most media. Hardly any of the journalists at the time imagined that this small page in the history of Tesla would be so important for its development. Like Toyota, which sought all sorts of designs and patents to lay the foundations for its hybrid technology, the creators of Tesla at the time were looking for ingenious ways to create an electric car at an adequate cost. As part of this search are the use of asynchronous motors, the integration of conventional laptop cells into batteries and their reasonable management, and the use of Lotus' lightweight construction platform as the basis for the first Roadster model. Yes, the same car that Musk sent into space with the Falcon Heavy.
Coincidentally, in the same year 2010 from across the ocean I had the good fortune to attend another interesting event related to electric cars - the presentation of BMW's MegaCity Vehicle. Even at a time of falling oil prices and complete disinterest in electric cars, BMW presented a model created entirely according to the specifics of the electric drive, with an aluminum battery-bearing frame. To compensate for the weight of the batteries, which in 2010 had cells that not only had a smaller capacity but were five times more expensive than they are now, BMW engineers, together with a number of their subcontractors, had developed a carbon design that it could be produced in large numbers. In the same year, 2010, Nissan launched its electric offensive with the Leaf, and GM introduced its Volt / Ampera. These were the first birds of the new electric mobility…
Back in Time
If we go back in the history of the car we will find that from the end of the 19th century until around the First World War the electric car was considered to be fully competitive with that powered by the internal combustion engine. It is true that the batteries were quite inefficient at the time, but it is also true that the internal combustion engine was in its infancy. The invention of the electric starter in 1912, the discovery of large oil fields in Texas before that, and the construction of more and more roads in the United States, as well as the invention of assembly lines, the engine with the engine gained clear advantages over the electric. The "promising" alkaline batteries of Thomas Edison turned out to be inefficient and unreliable and only poured oil into the firewood of the electric car. All the advantages are preserved throughout almost the entire 20th century, when electric cars companies constructed only out of technological interest. Even during the aforementioned oil crises, it never occurred to anyone that the electric car could be an alternative, and although the electrochemistry of lithium cells was not yet known, it had not yet been "refined." The first major breakthrough in the creation of a more modern electric car was the GM EV1, a unique engineering creation from the 90s, whose history is beautifully described in the company "Who Killed the Electric Car."
If we move back to our days, we will find that priorities have already changed. The current situation with BMW electric cars is an indicator of the rapid processes that are raging in the field and chemistry is becoming the main driving force in this process. It is no longer necessary to design and manufacture lightweight carbon structures to compensate for the weight of the batteries. It is now the responsibility of (electro) chemists from companies such as Samsung, LG Chem, CATL, etc., whose development and production departments are looking for ways to make the most efficient use of lithium-ion cell processes. Because both promising "graphene" and "solid" batteries are actually variants of lithium-ion. But let's not get ahead of events.
Tesla and everyone else
Recently, in an interview, Elon Musk mentioned that he would enjoy the widespread penetration of electric cars, which means that his mission as a pioneer to influence others has been fulfilled. It sounds altruistic, but I believe it is. In this context, any statements about the creation of various Tesla killers or statements such as "we are better than Tesla" are pointless and redundant. What the company managed to do is unparalleled and these are the facts - even if more and more manufacturers start offering better models than those of Tesla.
German carmakers are on the verge of a small electrical revolution, but the honor of Tesla's first worthy opponent fell to Jaguar with its I-Pace, which is one of the few (still) cars built on a dedicated platform. This is largely due to the expertise of engineers from Jaguar / Land Rover and the parent company Tata in the field of aluminum alloy processing technologies and the fact that most of the company's models are such, and low series production allows to absorb the high price .
We should not forget the swarm of Chinese manufacturers developing specially designed electric models stimulated by tax rebates in this country, but probably the most significant contribution to the creation of a more popular car will come from the "people's car" VW.
As part of the complete transformation of its life philosophy and distancing itself from diesel problems, VW is developing its large-scale program based on the MEB body structure, on which dozens of models will be based in the coming years. Stimulating for all this are the strict standards for carbon dioxide emissions of the European Union, which require by 2021 the average amount of CO2 in the range of each manufacturer to be reduced to 95 g / km. This means an average consumption of 3,6 liters of diesel or 4,1 liters of gasoline. With declining demand for diesel cars and increasing demand for SUV models, this cannot be done without the introduction of electric models, which, although not driven with completely zero emissions, significantly reduce the average level.
(to follow)
Text: Georgy Kolev
