Electric car yesterday, today, tomorrow: part 1

A series of new challenges to electric mobility

Statistical analysis and strategic planning are very complex sciences, and the current health situation, the socio-political situation in the world proves this. At the moment, no one can say what will happen after the pandemic in terms of the automotive business, mainly because it is not known when this will happen. Will the requirements for carbon emissions and fuel consumption change in the world, and in particular in Europe? How this, combined with low oil prices and reduced treasury revenues, will affect mobility. Will their subsidies continue to increase or will the opposite happen? Will there be provided assistance money (if any) for car companies to invest in green technologies.

China, which is already getting rid of the crisis, will certainly continue to look for a way to become a leader in new mobility, since it has not become the technological vanguard in the old. Most automakers today still sell mostly cars with a traditional engine, but in recent years they have invested heavily in mobility, so they are ready for various scenarios after the crisis. Of course, even the darkest predictive scenarios do not include something as radical as what is happening. But, as Nietzsche says: “That which does not kill me makes me stronger.” How automobile companies and subcontractors will change their philosophy and what their health will be is still unknown. Of course, there will be work for manufacturers of lithium-ion cells. And before we continue with technological solutions in the field of electric motors and batteries, we will remind you some parts of the history and platform solutions in them.

Something like an introduction ...

The road is the destination. This seemingly simple thought about Lao Tzu gives meaning to the dynamic processes taking place in the automotive industry at the moment. It is true that various periods in its history have also been described as "dynamic" such as the two oil crises, but the fact is that significant transformation processes are indeed taking place in this area today. Perhaps the best picture of stress will come from the planning, development, or supplier relations departments. What will be the volume and relative share of electric vehicles in total vehicle production in the coming years? How to structure the supply of components such as lithium-ion cells for batteries, and who will be the supplier of materials and equipment for the production of electric motors and power electronics. Invest in your own developments or invest, buy shares and enter into contracts with other suppliers of electric drive manufacturers. If new body platforms are to be designed according to the specifics of the drive in question, should existing universal platforms be adapted or new universal platforms created? A huge number of questions on the basis of which quick decisions must be made, but on the basis of serious analysis. Because they all involve huge costs on the part of companies and restructuring, which in no way should harm the development of a classic engine with internal combustion engines (including a diesel engine). However, at the end of the day, they are the ones who make profits for car companies and must provide financial resources for the development and implementation of new electric models. And now the crisis...

Diesel fuel

Analysis based on statistics and forecasts is a difficult job. According to many forecasts in 2008, the price of oil should now exceed $250 per barrel. Then came the economic crisis, and all interpolations collapsed. The crisis ended and VW Bordeaux proclaimed the diesel engine and became the standard bearer of the diesel idea, with programs called "Diesel Day" or D-Day in analogy to Normandy D-Day. His ideas really started to germinate when it turned out that the diesel launch was not done in the most honest and clean way. Statistics do not account for such historical events and adventures, but neither industrial nor social life is barren. Politics and social media rushed to anesthetize the diesel engine without any technological basis, and Volkswagen itself poured oil on the fire and, as a compensatory mechanism, threw it on the fire, and proudly waved the flag of electric mobility in the fire.

Many automakers have fallen into this trap as a result of rapid development. The religion behind D-Day quickly became heresy, transformed into E-Day, and everyone frantically started asking themselves the above questions. In just four years from the diesel scandal in 2015 to today, even the most outspoken electro-skeptics have given up resistance to electric vehicles and started looking for ways to build them. Even Mazda, which claimed to be "heartfelt" and Toyota so selflessly attached to its hybrids that they delivered absurd marketing messages like "self-charging hybrids", is now ready with a common electric platform.

Now, without exception, all car manufacturers are starting to include electric or electrified cars in their range. Here, we won't go into detail on who exactly how many electric and electrified models will be introduced in the coming years, not only because such numbers come and go like autumn leaves, but also because this crisis will change many points of view. Plans are important to production planning departments, but as we mentioned above, "the road is the goal." Like a ship moving on the sea, the visibility of the horizon changes and new vistas open up behind it. Battery prices are falling, but so are oil prices. Politicians make decisions today, but over time, this leads to a sharp reduction in jobs, and new decisions restore the status quo. And then everything suddenly stops...

However, we are far from the idea that electrical mobility does not occur. Yes, this is “happening” and is likely to continue. But, as we have repeatedly talked about us in the field of motorsport and sports, knowledge is a top priority, and with this series we want to help expand this knowledge.

Who will do what - in the near future?

Elon Musk's magnetism and the induction that Tesla (like the company's widely used asynchronous or asynchronous motors) affect the automotive industry are incredible. If we leave aside the scheme of acquiring capital by the company, we cannot help but admire the man who found his niche in the automotive industry and advanced his “launch” among mastodons. I remember visiting the Detroit exhibition in 2010 when Tesla showed off part of the future model S aluminum platform at a small booth. I was apparently worried that the booth engineer was not honored with the special attention of most of the media. It is unlikely that any of the journalists of that time imagined that this small page in the history of Tesla would be so important for its development. Like Toyota, which was looking for all kinds of designs and patents to lay the foundations of its hybrid technology, the creators of Tesla at that time were looking for ingenious ways to create an electric car with an adequate price. As part of this search, induction motors are used, the integration of conventional laptop elements into batteries and their intelligent management, and the use of the Lotus lightweight construction platform as the basis for the first Roadster model. Yes, the same machine that Musk sent into space with Falcon Heavy.

Coincidentally, in the same 2010 in the ocean, I was lucky enough to attend another interesting event related to electric vehicles - the presentation of the BMW MegaCity Vehicle. Even at a time of falling oil prices and a complete lack of interest in electric vehicles, BMW has introduced a model designed entirely according to the specifics of the electric drive, with an aluminum frame that carries the battery. To offset the weight of batteries, which in 2010 had cells that not only had lower capacity but were five times more expensive than they are now, BMW engineers, along with a number of their subcontractors, developed a carbon structure that could be produced in large quantities. . Also in 2010, Nissan launched its electric offensive with the Leaf and GM introduced its Volt/Ampera. These were the first birds of the new electric mobility...

Back in Time

If we go back to the history of the automobile, we find that from the end of the 19th century until the outbreak of World War I, the electric car was considered fully competitive with the electric internal combustion engine. It's true that batteries were pretty inefficient at the time, but it's also true that the internal combustion engine was in its infancy. The invention of the electric starter in 1912, the discovery of the major oil fields in Texas before that, and the construction of more and more roads in the United States, and the invention of the assembly line, the motor-driven engine had distinct advantages over the electric one. The "promising" alkaline batteries of Thomas Edison proved to be inefficient and unreliable and only added fuel to the fire of the electric car. All of the benefits persisted throughout most of the 20th century, when the company's electric vehicles were built purely out of technological interest. Even during the aforementioned oil crises, it never occurred to anyone that an electric car could be an alternative, and although the electrochemistry of lithium cells was known, it had not yet been "cleaned up". The first major breakthrough in the creation of a more modern electric car was the GM EV1, a unique engineering creation of the 1990s, whose history is beautifully described in the company Who Killed the Electric Car.

If we go back to our days, we will find that priorities have already changed. The current situation with BMW electric cars is an indicator of the fast processes that are boiling in the field, and chemistry is becoming the main driving force in this process. It is no longer necessary to design and manufacture lightweight carbon structures to compensate for the weight of the batteries. At present, it is the responsibility of (electro) chemists from companies such as Samsung, LG Chem, CATL, etc., whose development and production departments are looking for ways to make the most efficient use of lithium-ion cell processes. Because both promising “graphene” and “solid” batteries are actually lithium-ion variants. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Tesla and everyone else

Recently, in an interview, Elon Musk mentioned that he will get widespread use of electric vehicles, which means that his mission as a pioneer to influence others has been completed. This sounds altruistic, but I believe it is. In this context, any claims about the creation of various Tesla killers or statements such as "we are better than Tesla" are meaningless and redundant. What the company has managed to do is unparalleled, and these are facts - even if more and more manufacturers are starting to offer better models than Tesla.

German automakers are on the brink of a small electric revolution, but Tesla's first worthy adversary has fallen on the Jaguar with its I-Pace, which is one of the few (still) cars built on a dedicated platform. This is largely due to the experience of engineers from Jaguar / Land Rover and parent company Tata in the field of aluminum alloy processing technologies, as well as the fact that most of the company's models are such, and low series production allows you to absorb the high price. ,

We must not forget that Chinese manufacturers are developing specially designed electric models, stimulated by tax incentives, in this country, but probably the most significant contribution to the creation of a more popular car is the VW “people's car”.

As part of the overall transformation of its life philosophy and distancing itself from problems with diesel fuel, VW is developing its large-scale program based on the MEB body structure, on which dozens of models will be based in the coming years. For all of this, the strict carbon emissions standards in the European Union are stimulating, which by 2021 require that the average amount of CO2 in the range from each producer be reduced to 95 g / km. This means an average consumption of 3,6 liters of diesel fuel or 4,1 liters of gasoline. In the face of a decrease in demand for diesel cars and an increase in demand for SUV models, this cannot be done without the introduction of electric models, which, although not completely zero, significantly reduce the average level.