Will there be no work for a man? Robo Faber era

According to a study by Daren Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University, published in April this year, every robot in an industry destroys three to six jobs in it. Those who were under the delusion that perhaps with this automation the taking of jobs is an exaggeration, they lose their illusions.

The researchers studied how industrial automation affected the US labor market in 1990-2007. They concluded that each additional robot reduced employment in this area by 0,25–0,5% and reduced wages by XNUMX–XNUMX%.

At the same time Daren's study AcemoGlu and Pasquala Restrepo provide evidence that robotization is effective and cost-effective. According to the International Federation of Robotics, 1,5 million to 1,75 million industrial robots are currently in use, and some experts believe that number will double or even increase by 2025.

In early 2017, The Economist reported that by 2034, 47% of jobs will be automated. “No government in the world is ready for this,” journalists warn, predicting a veritable tsunami of social change that will result.

In turn, the consulting company PricewaterhouseCooper, in its forecast for the British market, speaks of the prospect of losing 30% of jobs in the next fifteen years, with up to 80% in administrative positions. Job offer website Gumtree claims in its study that nearly half of the jobs (40%) in today's job market will be replaced by machines over the next XNUMX years.

Mental work disappears

Dr Carl Frey of the University of Oxford, in a high-profile paper several years ago on the future of employment, predicted that 47% of jobs would face a serious risk of disappearing due to job automation. The scientist was criticized for exaggeration, but he did not change his mind. Currently, a plethora of data and research seems to confirm not only that he is right, but may even underestimate the impact of the robotic revolution on work.

The book has recently broken world records. "Second Machine Age" by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfi'gowho write about the growing threat to low-skill jobs. “Technology has always destroyed jobs, but it has also created them. This has been the case for the last two hundred years,” Brynjolfsson said in a recent interview. “However, since the 90s, the ratio of employed persons to the total population has been rapidly declining. Government agencies should take this phenomenon into account when conducting economic policy.”

McAfee told Wired in February this year that it's not so much the vision of the machines, the rise of Skynet and the Terminator that worries him, but the vision of the rise of humans losing their jobs at an alarming rate. through robotics and automation. The economist draws attention not to physical labor, but to the growing labor market since the 80s. the problem of reducing the number of white-collar workers who, at least in American conditions, constitute the middle class. And if there is such a job, then either the salary is very low, or the salary is much higher than the average.

When we look at the technologies currently being developed, the resulting list of jobs to be eliminated can be surprisingly long. Because do we expect, for example, that the threat will affect? TV camera operators? Meanwhile, the German company KUKA is already testing robots that will not only replace operators, but also record "better and more stable". Cars with cameras are already being used on television in some places.

For professions such as dentist, actor, coach, firefighter or priest, it will be quite difficult to find a replacement for a robot. At least that's how it seems so far. However, this is not completely excluded in the future, since machines or systems have already been created that at least partially fulfill their functions. They say that in car factories, robots will never replace people in certain positions. Meanwhile, robot makers such as the Japanese company Yaskawa, which once created a machine for building structures from Lego bricks, have a different opinion on this matter. As it turned out, you can even automate positions managerial levels.

South Korean educational robot Engkey

For example, Deep Knowledge employees have a robot equipped with artificial intelligence as one of their bosses. Member of the Supervisory Board because there is a certain Vital (od) - or rather, software prepared for analyzing marketing trends based on the data provided. Unlike humans, artificial intelligence does not have emotions and intuition and relies only on the data provided, calculating the likelihood of certain circumstances (and business effects).

Financiers? Since the 80s, the functions of stockbrokers and brokers have been taken over by complex algorithms that are more efficient than humans at capturing stock price differences and making money from it.

Lawyers? Why not? U.S. law firm BakerHostetler was the first in the world to hire an AI-powered robot lawyer last year. A machine called Ross, developed by IBM, deals with corporate bankruptcies 24 hours a day - it used to have about fifty lawyers working on it.

teachers? In South Korea, where English teachers are hard to find, the first teaching robots are teaching the language of Shakespeare. The pilot program of this project was introduced in primary schools. In 2013, Engkey foreign language learning machines became available in schools and even kindergartens, remotely controlled by English teachers from other countries.

Additive Industries and Unemployment in Third World Countries

According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), it was sold worldwide in 2013. 179 thousand industrial robots.

Interestingly, the industrial automation revolution, combined with the development of 3D printing and additive technologies (related to 3D printing and its derivatives), can lead to job losses even in so-called countries. third world with cheap labor. It was there that for years they sewed, for example, sports shoes for well-known world companies. Now, for example, Nike Flyknit shoes are made entirely automatically, from 3D printed components, which are then sewn with multi-colored threads in robotic looms, reminiscent of old weaving workshops - but without people. With such automation, the proximity of the plant to the buyer begins to be taken into account to reduce shipping costs. No wonder German Adidas manufactures its Primeknit models, based on the same technology as the aforementioned Nike shoes, in their homeland, and not somewhere in Central Asia. Simply capturing jobs from Asian manufactories doesn't give you too many jobs in Germany. A robotic factory does not need numerous staff.

Changes in the structure of employment of people and robots in 2009-2013.

Analyst firm Boston Consulting Group announced in 2012 that, thanks to automation, robotic technology, and advances in additive manufacturing, by 30 2020% of US imports from China could be made in the US. It's a sign of the times that the Japanese company Mori Seiki opens a car parts factory and assembles them in California. However, there are certainly no workers there. Machines make machines, and apparently you don't even have to turn on the lights in this factory.

Maybe it's not the end of the job at all, but it looks like the end of the job for so many people. Such an abundance of forecasts is perhaps quite eloquent. Experts are beginning to speak with one voice - a huge part of the labor market will disappear in the coming decades. The other side of these predictions is the social consequences. They are much harder to imagine. Many people still think that studying law or banking is a good ticket to a good job and a good life. Nobody tells them to think again.

Production of Nike Flyknit shoes

A pessimistic view of the labor market, which is gradually being replaced by robots, at least in developed countries, does not necessarily mean a decline in living standards and deprivation. When there is less and less of it - replacing it, he has to pay taxes. Maybe not quite a robot, but certainly the company that uses it. Many people think this way, for example, Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft.

This would allow all those who were taken away from work by machines to live at a decent level - i.e. buy what the robots that work for them produce.