Will the fuel stop? Expert forecasts for fuel prices in the coming months of 2022

The geopolitical situation in 2022 is very difficult. The war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the months-long COVID-19 pandemic caused inflation to spike. Even the largest economies in the world, led by Germany and the United States, are struggling. The situation in our country is the worst in recent years, and this manifests itself in many aspects of daily life. And also on such key issues as gasoline prices. Because the more expensive, the more expensive goods and services. More and more people are asking if the fuel supply will stop? Experts have no doubt that this will have to wait.

Record prices for gasoline and oil in 2022 - what is the reason?

In the first half of 2022, many negative events overlapped, as well as the consequences of the problems that all countries without exception have struggled with in recent years. This affected the stability of the economies of many countries of the world. In our country, the biggest problem was inflation, a record high level of which directly affects the prices of essential goods. Including fuel, the average prices for which are growing every week. When it seemed that the situation was under control, another increase was announced. 

inflation

Inflation, that is, the general rise in prices, will break records in 2022. Everyone is beginning to worry about expensive prices, and there are goods that have risen in price by several hundred percent in a year. Fortunately, there is no fuel, but it is still record-breakingly expensive. It looks like the 9 zł/l EU95 barrier will be broken faster than anyone thinks. Diesel fuel is slightly cheaper, but still very expensive. When fuel rises in price, all services and products that are transported by land rise in price. It is a self-replicating machine that causes prices to skyrocket.

War in Ukraine

The situation in Ukraine, which has not been controlled in recent months, also has a direct impact on the fuel market. This, of course, is due to the fact that Russia, which is involved in the conflict, is one of the most important oil exporters in the world. Many countries, in support of Ukraine and condemnation of the war, refused to buy "black gold" from Russia. Thus, to the market, i.e. Numerous refineries end up with less valuable raw materials, and this directly affects fuel prices.

Unrest in the fuel market

The fuel market is sensitive to any variable, even the smallest one. Taking into account what was written earlier, we can talk about panic in the market, which has a negative impact on retail prices for raw materials. Economists have no doubt that the rise in prices is also due to the fact that the future of Ukraine is still uncertain, as well as the consequences of the war in our eastern neighbors. Such uncertainty usually means a single-market increase in fuel prices. Under these conditions, the question of whether fuel will become cheaper is justified, but it is difficult to be an optimist in this matter.

Will the fuel stop? Professionals are concerned

Of course, there is no definite answer to the question of whether the fuel supply will stop, but it should be assumed that yes. The problem is that not anytime soon. Prices, already record highs, will last for the next few weeks at best. This is due to the fact that there will be holidays, and during this period the demand for gasoline, diesel and LPG is higher than in other months of the year. This is, of course, due to the typical consumer demand that results from numerous holiday trips. During this period, even when fuel prices were lower, they always registered a few percent increase.

If this happened this year, we could talk about a different record. The specialists, who are more optimistic, say that the current rates will remain the same for the holiday period, but this is not comforting either. For many, fuel will be too much of a cost of a possible trip. It is also worth noting here that the VAT and the markup are not decreasing, and the state also wants to earn on the high fuel excise tax. The economic crisis is felt in all spheres of life, and the money raised from the sale of fuel can be the solution to many problems. However, drivers suffer as well as their household budget.

Will the fuel run out after the holidays?

It is difficult to give a clear answer to this question, because the situation is very dynamic and there are still many variables that cannot be predicted. However, it looks like there could be a noticeable drop in fuel prices right after the holidays. Demand for fuel will fall, and at the same time the fuel market will adapt to the new circumstances that it will have to face. Of course, the situation in Ukraine is important here, but it is just as difficult to predict it as it is whether gasoline will eventually become cheaper.

Cheaper elsewhere too...

It is worth noting here that fuel prices are rising all over the world. Further growth is recorded in the European Union and the United States. Public sentiment is not the best, especially in America, where the government has begun to use fuel reserves. However, it is worth remembering that the growth is still less noticeable for the Germans or the French, who, on average, earn much more than the Poles.. So even if fuel is a few percent cheaper in our country than in the West, in fact, its price is a big burden for citizens. Fuel price forecasts in Western countries are also not optimistic, but numerous driver support systems are being implemented. In our country, such fuel has not yet been offered, and we can only guess whether the fuel will become cheaper and, if so, when?

Wholesale fuel prices are still a big problem for those in power who are unable to cope with rising prices. At the same time, the increase has a negative impact on public sentiment, so it could be a ticking time bomb. The question of whether fuel will become cheaper is now especially relevant. However, there are still no answers, although at some point prices should start to fall. When entering Orlen or BP, unfortunately, you have to take into account the costs. Many drivers decide to cut mileage and save money, but not everyone can afford such a solution. There are those who, regardless of fuel prices, have to come to the station and refuel, ignoring the rising costs.