Will man take two steps further in space, and when?

Sending humans into space is difficult, expensive, risky, and doesn't necessarily make more scientific sense than automated missions. However, nothing excites the imagination like manned travel to places where no one has been before.

The club of space powers that sent a person to extraterrestrial space (not to be confused with the flight of a citizen of this country under a foreign flag) still includes only the USA, Russia and China. India will soon join this group.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi solemnly announced that his country plans to have a manned orbital flight by 2022, possibly aboard a planned spacecraft. Gaganyaan (one). Recently, the media also reported on the first work on the new Russian ship. Федерацияwhich is expected to fly further than the Soyuz (its name will be changed to "more appropriate" despite the fact that the current one was selected in a national competition). Not much is known about China's new manned capsule other than that it is scheduled to test-fly in 2021, although it is likely to have no people on board.

As for the long-term goal of manned missions, it is precisely for this March. The Agency plans based on gateway station (the so-called gate) create a complex Transport in deep space (summer time). Consisting of Orion pods, living quarters, and independent propulsion modules, it will eventually be relocated to (2), although that is still quite a distant future.

2. Visualization of deep space transport reaching the vicinity of Mars, created by Lockheed Martin.

New generation of spacecraft

For deep space travel, it is necessary to have slightly more advanced vehicles than tightly used transport capsules in LEO (low earth orbit). American work well advanced from Orion (3), commissioned by Lockheed Martin. The Orion capsule, as part of the EM-1 unmanned mission scheduled for 2020, is to be equipped with an ESA system provided by the European agency.

It will primarily be used to build and transport crews to the Gateway station around the Moon, which, according to the announcement, will be an international project - not only in the US, but also in Europe, Japan, Canada and possibly Russia as well. .

Work on new spacecraft is proceeding, so to speak, in two directions.

One is building capsules for maintenance of orbital stationssuch as the International Space Station ISS or its future Chinese counterpart. This is what private entities in the US should do. Dragon 2 from SpaceX and CST-100 Starliner Boeing, in the case of the Chinese Shenzhouand the Russians union.

The second type is desire. flights beyond the earth's orbit, that is, to Mars, and ultimately to Mars. Those intended only for flights to the BEO (i.e. beyond the limits of low Earth orbit) will be mentioned. Similarly, the Russian Federation, as recently reported by Roskosmos.

Unlike previously used capsules, which were disposable, the manufacturers, as well as one person, are saying that future ships will be reusable. Each of them will be equipped with a drive module, which will contain power, shunting engines, fuel, etc. They are also more massive on their own, as they require more effective shields against them. Ships intended for the BEO mission must be equipped with larger propulsion systems, as they require more fuel, more powerful engines and greater system interchangeability.

2033 to Mars? It might not work

Last September, NASA announced a detailed National Space Exploration Plan (). It aims to achieve the lofty goals of US President Donald Trump, as set out in his December 2017 Space Policy Directive, to get US astronauts to Mars, and generally to strengthen US primacy in extraterrestrial space.

Analysts described the envisioned future in a 21-page report, giving a time frame for each of the goals. However, there is flexibility in forecasting any of these, and it may change if the plan runs into obstacles or provides new data. NASA plans, for example, to wait for the results of the mission to be finalized until the results of the mission with the proposed budget for a manned Martian mission are finalized. March 2020during which the next rover will collect and analyze samples on the surface. The manned expedition itself would take place in the 30s, and preferably - up to 2033.

A NASA-produced independent report by the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) published in April 2019 shows that the technological challenges of building a deep space transport station to take astronauts to and from Mars, as well as many other elements of the Mars Expedition Plan, put under a serious question is the possibility of achieving the goal as early as 2033.

The report, completed ahead of Mike Pence's March 26 high-profile speech in which the U.S. Vice President nearly ordered NASA to send humans back to the moon by 2024, shows how much it could cost to return to the moon and what that means in the long run. -urgent context plans to dispatch the crew.

The STPI was considering the use of programs currently under development, lunar and later Mars landers, Orion and the planned Gateway to be built in the 20s The report shows that all this work will take too long to be completed in term. Moreover, another launch window in 2035 was also considered unrealistic.

“We find that even without budget constraints, an orbital mission March 2033 cannot be carried out in accordance with the current and hypothetical plans of NASA, ”the STPI document says. “Our analysis shows that it can be implemented no earlier than 2037, subject to uninterrupted technological development, without delays, cost overruns and the risk of budget shortfalls.”

According to the STPI report, if you want to fly to Mars in 2033, you will have to go through critical flights by 2022, which is unlikely. Research on the "phase A" of the Deep Space Transport project should begin as early as 2020, which is also not possible, since the analysis of the cost of the entire project has not yet begun. The report also warned that trying to speed up the timeline by deviating from standard NASA practice would create huge risks in reaching the goals.

STPI also estimated the budget for a mission to Mars in a “realistic” timeframe of 2037. The total cost of building all the necessary components – including a heavy launch vehicle Space Launch System (SLS), Orion ship, Gateway, DST and other elements and services are indicated on $120,6 billioncalculated up to 2037. Of this amount, 33,7 billion has already been spent on the development of the SLS and Orion systems and their associated ground systems. It is worth adding that the Martian mission is part of the overall space flight program, the total cost of which until 2037 is estimated at $217,4 billion. This includes sending humans to the Red Planet, as well as low-level operations and the development of Mars ground systems needed for future missions.

Head of NASA Jim Bridenstine However, in a speech delivered on April 9 at the 35th Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, he did not seem to be deterred by the new report. He expressed enthusiasm for Pence's accelerated lunar schedule. In his opinion, it leads directly to Mars.

- - He said.

China: Martian base in the Gobi Desert

The Chinese also have their own Martian plans, although traditionally nothing is known for sure about them, and the schedules of manned flights are certainly not known. In any case, the Chinese adventure with Mars will begin next year.

A mission will then be sent in 2021 to explore the area. China's first rover HX-1. Lander and go on this journey, raised rocket "Changzheng-5". Upon arrival, the rover should look around and select suitable places to collect samples. When this happens it's very hard Long March 9 launch vehicle (in development) will send another lander there with another rover, whose robot will take the samples, deliver them to the rocket, which will put them into orbit and all the equipment will return to Earth. All this should happen by 2030. So far, no country has been able to complete such a mission. However, as you might guess, the Return from Mars tests are an introduction to the program of sending people there.

The Chinese did not carry out their first manned extraterrestrial mission until 2003. Since then, they have already built the core of their own and sent many ships into space, and at the beginning of this year, for the first time in the history of astronautics, soft they landed on the far side of the moon.

Now they say they won't stop at our natural satellite, or even Mars. During flights to these facilities, there will also be missions to asteroids and Jupiter, the largest planet. The National Space Administration of China (CNSA) plans to be there in 2029. Work on more efficient rocket and ship engines is still ongoing. It should be nuclear engine new generation.

China's aspirations are typified by proving grounds such as the shiny, futuristic facilities that opened in April this year. Mars Base 1 (4) which is in the middle of the Gobi Desert. Its purpose is to show visitors what life can be like for people. The structure has a silver dome and nine modules, including living quarters, a control room, a greenhouse, and a gateway. While school trips are brought here.

4. Chinese Mars Base 1 in the Gobi Desert

touching twin test

In recent years, further manned missions have not been well received by the press due to the costs and threats to biological beings in space. There was annoyance about whether we should ever cede planetary and deep space exploration to robots. But new scientific data are encouraging people.

The results of the NASA expeditions were considered encouraging in terms of manned expeditions. experiment with “twin brother in space”. Astronauts Scott and Mark Kelly (5) took part in the test, the purpose of which was to detect the long-term influence of space on the human body. For almost a year, the twins went through the same medical checkups, one on board, the other on Earth. Recent results show that a year in space has a significant, but not life-threatening, effect on the human body, raising hope for the possibility of a mission to Mars in the future.

5. Twins Scott and Mark Kelly

Over the course of a year, Scott collected all sorts of medical records about himself. He took blood and urine and did cognitive tests. On Earth, his brother did the same. In 2016, Scott returned to Earth where he was studied for the next nine months. Now, four years after the start of the experiment, they have published the full results.

First, they show that there are traits in Scott's chromosomes radiation injury. This can lead to diseases such as cancer.

However, a year in space also activates thousands of genes associated with the immune system, which on Earth can only happen under extreme conditions. When we find ourselves in stressful situations, get severely injured or get sick, the immune response begins to work.

Twin cell structures called telomeres. There are caps at the ends of the chromosomes. help protect our DNA from damage and shrink with or without tension. To the surprise of the researchers, Scott's telomeres in space were not shorter, but much longer. After returning to Earth within 48 hours, they again became shorter, and six months later, more than 90% of their activated immune genes turned off. After nine months, the chromosomes were less damaged, meaning that none of the changes the researchers had previously observed were life-threatening.

Scott said in an interview.

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Susan Bailey, a researcher at Colorado State University, believes that Scott's body reacted to the state of radiation. stem cell mobilization. The discovery could help scientists develop medical countermeasures to the effects of space travel. The researcher does not even rule out that one day she will even find methods life extension on earth.

So, should long-term space travel extend our lives? This would be a rather unexpected consequence of the space exploration program.