What threatens us - cataclysms from heaven and earth

The more we know about our near and far space environment, the more we have to fear. However, we have an advantage over the dinosaurs, who were unaware of the dangers of their time before they became extinct. But will this advantage help us in any way?

Far forecasters have no doubt that in half a million years a meteorite with a diameter of about 1 km will probably fall to Earth, causing a massive cosmic catastrophe. What's next? In 4 million years, Gliese 710 will be 1,1 light-years from the Sun, potentially disrupting the orbits of objects in the Oort Cloud and increasing the chance of a comet colliding with one of the solar system's inner planets. In turn, in a 100-million-year perspective, a meteorite the size of the one that caused the Cretaceous extinction event 65 million years ago is predicted to hit Earth and is said to be responsible for wiping out the dinosaurs. So in any case, something dramatic awaits us - hopefully as soon as possible.

Everything was already there

As the analysis of the drawings on the stones found at the Turkish archaeological site showed Gebekli Tepe, now considered the oldest trace of human civilization, about 11 thousand BC. our globe has collided with a comet or its fragments. According to scientists from the University of Edinburgh.

They combine their discovery with the so-called platinum anomaly geological period of the Younger Dryas. Christopher Moore and colleagues at the American University of South Carolina previously reported that a large amount of platinum was found in the Younger Dryas layer. This ore is very rare on Earth, but is often found on asteroids and comets. Younger Dryas platinum has been found in many remote places in the United States, so it cannot be ruled out that this is the result of an event that is felt across the continent or even the globe.

Sępia Skała from Göbekli Tepe

At Göbekli Tepe, the reliefs are found on a pillar of a building known as Vulture Rock and depict animals in rather unnatural poses. The symbols puzzled many researchers for a long time, until they finally discovered that they corresponded to the constellations of the stars and show how a swarm of comets hit the Earth. There is also an image of a headless man on the pillar, which is considered a symbol of the cataclysm and the many victims after its impact. The scientists used special computer models that helped them match the star constellations listed on Vulture Rock to specific dates. It turned out that the fall of the meteor should have occurred around 10 BC. with the possibility of a 950-year miss.

Scientists compare this hypothesis with information from drill cores mined in Greenland, according to which the period, called the Younger Dryas, began around 10 BC. . years is a temporary “stone-throwing” from us.

As a group of astronomers from the Armagh Observatory and the University of Buckingham pointed out in a 2015 report, we may be underestimating the threat that so-called asteroids pose to life on our planet. centaury, asteroids showing features of both comets and asteroids. The orbits of these celestial bodies are located on the outskirts of the solar system, between Jupiter and Neptune. Experts are concerned about the impact that the solar system's gas giants could have on them.

This is a serious matter, because centaurs have a diameter of 50 to 100 km, and a collision with them would surely mean the end of our civilization, and possibly life as we know it today. Calculations made by scientists show that such a large object could be in its path of impact with the Earth every 40-100. years. And even if the centaur does not collide with our planet, a very close flight of such a monster can turn into a real bombardment of the earth's surface by space debris of various sizes trailing behind it.

Exposure Hazard Awareness Day

In February 2013, an asteroid fell on Russian territory. Chelyabinsk. More than a thousand people were injured, but, fortunately, no one died. The culprit was just a 20-meter piece of rock that quietly penetrated the Earth's atmosphere - it was too small to be seen, and in addition came from the sun.

Once in the atmosphere, the shock wave was registered by military acoustic detectors designed to detect illegal atomic explosions. This inspired Prof. Peter Brown from the University of Western Canada to study data on previously recorded atmospheric forcings. As a result, the scientist discovered almost thirty explosions caused by asteroids entering the atmosphere, which have occurred since 2001. Although they originated too high in the atmosphere to threaten us, the news of them still means awakening from a peaceful sleep. It is estimated that in a swarm of all asteroids close to Earth, there are as many as 10 million of these asteroids the size of Chelyabinsk - each capable of causing damage on the scale of one city. So far, we have discovered and cataloged less than 0,1% of them.

Scientists believe that objects up to 30 m long should normally burn in the atmosphere. Those from 30 m to 1 km are in danger of destruction on a local scale. The "visit" of the larger ones may already have repercussions that are being felt across the planet. The largest potentially dangerous object discovered by NASA, Toutatis, reaches 6 km.

A year after the incident in Chelyabinsk, scientists from various fields, as well as famous personalities, for example, Queen guitarist Brian May, jointly established asteroid day. His date was chosen on June 30, to commemorate the anniversary of the fall of the so-called. Tunguska meteorite in 1908, which is now believed not to have been a meteorite at all... Interestingly, in the weeks leading up to this year's Asteroid Day celebration, two objects flew relatively close to our planet (about a distance from the Moon). The first, on June 6, was the size of a football field. The second, on June 19, was only a little less ...

Estimated number of near-Earth asteroids - after WISE observations

в asteroid hazard assessment program (ATAP - Threat Assessment Project) NASA uses supercomputers to simulate our planet's impacts with dangerous objects. Accurate modeling allows you to predict the extent of possible damage and loss. Great merit in the detection of objects has Broadband infrared browser (WISE) is a NASA infrared space telescope launched on December 14, 2009. To date, he has taken over 2,7 million photographs. In October 2010, after the primary objective of the mission was reached, the telescope's instrument coolant ran out. However, two of the four detectors could continue to function and were used to continue the mission called neowise – aimed at searching for near-Earth objects (NEO). In 2016 alone, NASA, using the NEOWISE observatory, discovered more than a hundred new rock objects in the vicinity of our globe. Ten of them were classified as potentially dangerous. The statement, released in June of this year, also mentions an as-yet difficult-to-explain increase in cometary activity.

As surveillance techniques and devices evolve, the amount of information about threats is rapidly increasing. Recently, for example, representatives of the Institute of Astronomy of the Czech Academy of Sciences stated that red Tauridsregularly crossing the orbit of the Earth, asteroids with destructive potential can hide, threatening entire countries. According to the Czechs, we can expect them in 2022, 2025, 2032 or 2039.

When the sun turns us off

In 2011, the media reported that a wave of charged plasma particles from giant solar flares had just touched the Earth. This caused auroras to the north and slightly disrupted radio communications, NASA concluded. Fortunately, black scenarios of complete paralysis of communications and massive short circuits in the power grid did not come true.

The phenomenon with which we were dealing at that time was called by the researchers coronal mass ejections (abbreviation KME). Then huge plasma clouds move towards our planet at a speed of 900 km/s. The direct impact of such a cloud of charged particles can cause a huge geomagnetic storm. Collision with the Earth's magnetic field can block radio communications, disrupt the GPS system, and even block power networks.

The following year, on July 23, 2012, the Sun experienced the largest eruption ever recorded by space probes. Fortunately, we did not feel its impact, since the release was not directed directly at the Earth. However, astronomers have been warning for years that if a big "shot" of matter is sent to Earth, we will be in serious trouble. We live in a time when our daily life, from transport to communication, depends on electricity. Scientists believe that with a sufficiently strong magnetic storm after an explosion on the Sun, damage to the energy system could affect entire countries, and repairing the damage, including restoring electricity supply, in some cases will take up to several years. In 1989, during a magnetic storm in the Canadian state of Quebec, there was a power outage. Thousands of consumers were left without electricity for nine hours. Various institutions, including the stock exchange, did not work, which led to large financial losses.

The most dangerous magnetic storm in history hit Earth in early September 1859. She is known as "The Carrington phenomenon“- on behalf of an amateur astronomer, who was the only one who then observed a solar flare. The solar wind reached the Earth's magnetic poles in less than twenty hours, 2-3 times faster than usual. There were failures and breakdowns in the telegraph network in Europe and North America. The auroras, usually seen over the polar regions, were observed this time almost all over the world - even in countries close to the equator.

These events did not destroy a civilization based on electricity, electromagnetism and electronics, mainly because this civilization did not yet exist. However, in a report from the American Academy of Sciences, scientists warn that a storm like the one in 1859 could cause global catastrophe today. Rapid changes in the magnetic field over a large area during a magnetic storm induce an electromotive force in the conductors, which can be dangerous for high voltage transformers. A magnetic storm the size of 1859 could destroy the entire energy system of industrialized countries.

"Soon" in the Earth's sky

99942 Apophis – When observed in 2004, it was calculated that this 325-meter object had a 2,7% chance of hitting the Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029. , 97,3 Apophis may indeed cause some damage, as it is likely to pass close to the orbits of some telecommunications satellites.

1950 D.A. – Until recently, this asteroid held the record for the probability of a collision with the Earth. In 2002, it was found that the risk that it will hit our planet in 2880 is as high as 17%. However, in mid-2013, after a more detailed analysis, the probability was reduced to 0,044%. And then the scientists… reduced them to zero.

1999 AN10 – This object has a diameter of 1 to 2 km, so it will easily destroy a medium-sized country. On August 7, 2027, our planet will pass at a distance similar to the distance between us and the Moon. Most recently, he was close to Earth in 1946.

Supervolcano takes no prisoners

According to various estimates, there are from seven to twelve of them on Earth. supervolcanoes and one explosion is enough to forever change the landscape of our planet. In the prospect of 100 thousand. In a few years, a supervolcanic eruption is likely to occur on Earth, as a result of which 400 km³ of magma will be released to the surface. It should be added here that volcanologists expect a supervolcanic eruption in at least a million years and the release of as much as 3200 km³ of magma. It will be comparable to an eruption Toba Supervolcano 73 thousand years ago, when almost all the primitive people who lived at that time died.

Supervolcano - visualization

Over the past 36 million years, more than forty massive supervolcano eruptions have occurred on Earth. The Toba eruption is still the largest volcanic cataclysm in the last 28 million years. Today Lake Toba is surrounded by two small active volcanoes and many hot springs. This means that the volcano is still active and the pressure is still rising. The constantly rising island of Samosir can serve as additional evidence. According to the data collected so far, it has been established that the Toba volcano will erupt on average every 300-400 thousand. years, so it's bound to explode anyway.

Toba's last eruption is believed to have released about 2800 km³ pyroclastic materials, but some researchers believe that this is an underestimate. Surface lava in the amount of 1 thousand km³ covered 20-30 thousand km² surface of Sumatra with a layer 50-150 m thick (in some places even up to 400 m). The thickness of the cover gradually decreases towards the west. Pollen samples found in the French Grand Pylae swamp show that after the eruption of the Toba volcano, their number was sharply reduced for several thousand years.

Volcanic eruptions over the past six hundred years have provided evidence that they can cause so-called volcanic winter. For example, Pinatubo volcano in 1991 threw “only” 4 km into the air³ dust, which, however, reduced the average world temperature by about 0,5–0,7 °C. Similar effects have been observed in other recent volcanic eruptions. Of course, they are not the cause of all climate changes, but they can cause weather anomalies. Even the "years without a summer period" that followed the outbreak are known. Tambora Volcano in 1815 Tambora threw about 40 km into the air³ volcanic materials, and the effects of its activities were felt for several years after the explosion.

St. Helena eruption

A few years ago, American scientists made more accurate measurements of the amount of liquid magma that had accumulated under Yellowstone Park than before. He became the most famous in the world. Yellowstone supervolcano 2,5 times more than previously thought! At present, the dimensions of the chamber with molten rock ready to go outside are almost 90 km long and almost 30 km wide. Its resources range from 5 to 14 km deep into the earth.

The last eruption of the giant Yellowstone volcano happened 640 years ago. many years ago. According to some researchers, the next eruption "out of order." If this happens, we are in for a global catastrophe. It is estimated that a possible explosion would be two thousand times stronger than the eruption. St. Helena in 1980, which is blamed for many years of cooling of the climate. Another Yellowstone eruption, with a scale similar to that of up to 640 5 years, is estimated to destroy most of the US and lead to global cooling due to the huge amount of sulfur oxides released into the atmosphere. They would form a layer of sulfuric acid around the globe, reflecting sunlight for many years. According to pessimistic estimates, up to XNUMX billion people could die of starvation.

There is also a supervolcano much closer to us, in Italy. Phlegrean fields () - a supervolcano with a diameter of 13 km near Naples, one of the most dangerous in the world. A million people live in his area, and as many as 6 million people live in the explosion zone!

In May it was reported that they were closer to the outbreak than previously thought. The results of a new study are alarming. The surface of the earth in the area has risen, which, according to scientists, may be due to the formation of magma. Worse, there are as many as 24 craters in the area. Scientists from the University College London team and the Vesuvius Observatory emphasize that the volcano has been restless for 70 years. While it's impossible to pinpoint the exact time of the eruption, the researchers wrote in the journal Nature Communications that the Phlegrean Fields are definitely leaning toward an eruption.

Nelson's atmospheric twin

It would seem that 1-2 ° C are not very noticeable trifles. However, from a global point of view, the struggle to “fall with growth” below 2 ° C is a struggle to be or not to be large territories of the Earth and many living beings, including humans.

As the long-term work of scientists has shown, a person affects climate change by 90%. if carbon dioxide emissions industrial enterprises will not be reduced, the average temperature on the globe will increase from 1,8 to 4,0 °C. The ceiling is reported to be even 6,4°C.

Global Temperature Rise this will have a serious impact on the world, and the economies of many countries will suffer greatly. For example, a large number of agricultural crops will die out. As a result of climate change, the area of ​​plantations will be significantly reduced and the price of grain will increase many times over. Even more serious is the threat of rising ocean levels, which will directly lead to land inundation.

The water level in the oceans is rising. According to the new data, we are dealing with an increase of about 3 mm per year. Meanwhile, most of the people on our planet live in coastal areas. Already in 2007, studies showed that rising sea levels threatened 600 million people. These regions often form the backbone of an agricultural economy, feeding the inland population. There are important infrastructure elements, industrial zones, sewage treatment plants and other havens of technical civilization.

According to various estimates, the water level is expected to rise by 2100-28 cm by 43. This means flooding the lowest regions of the world - mainly tropical islands such as the Maldives, but also large cities such as Tokyo and San Francisco. Large areas of countries such as the Netherlands or the US state of Florida will also be under water.

Percentage of species extinct in the great extinction

On the other hand, experts predict that as a result of climate change and the drying up of vast areas of the planet by 2080, from 1,1 to 3,2 billion people around the world will remain without water, especially in Africa, Australia, South Asia and Europe. and western North America. More than 600 million people may go hungry. The number of violent weather events and natural disasters affecting the lives of people and the functioning of civilization will increase to 80%. Data from around the world show that the number of natural disasters is systematically increasing.

The ocean depths take heat from the atmosphere and heat up slowly but steadily. When the temperature at the bottom of the oceans rises, it can happen destabilization of methane hydrates, on the slopes of the continental ocean and the release of large amounts of methane into the ocean and atmosphere. Scientists believe that this happened earlier in the history of the Earth and was usually associated with periods of great extinctions.7).

effects melting permafrost can already be seen impressively in the North. Reports of mysterious craters in Siberia (9) can be heard for several years. To date, dozens of such holes have been found in the ground. Craters vary in size, the largest of them have a diameter of up to 30 m and a depth of 60-70 m. In June of this year, new holes appeared. Eyewitnesses who herded deer in the area spoke of a sudden deafening blast and explosion that could be seen from afar. They spoke of a sky-high flame that was visible for several minutes, and then a column of smoke rose.

Upon arrival, the researchers found two new huge craters. One of them, according to the Siberian Time service, can be located at a depth of up to 50 meters. It is located about 40 km north of the town of Sejacha. There was a lot of dirt around. The surrounding vegetation showed signs of fire. The explosion occurred on June 28 and was so strong that it was recorded by seismic sensors located near the surrounding gas fields. The second crater was discovered by a team of scientists led by Dr. J. Alexander Sokolov. It is located about 30 km east of the Jerkut scientific station. It was built earlier, probably in April.

As you can see, funnels do not have to be the work of uninvited guests "from above". Whether the perception of an increase in threats is due to our increased ability to detect them, or is actually due to their more frequent occurrence than before, threats - both heaven and earth - should not be underestimated.

Recent major impacts of space objects

• On April 30, 2013, shortly after the events in Chelyabinsk, an asteroid exploded over the North Atlantic, releasing the energy of a small atomic bomb.
• On February 15, 2013, a 20-meter object flew over Russia. No one died, but thousands of people were injured. Most of the asteroid's energy was absorbed by the atmosphere - previously, before entering this area, the object had a kinetic energy equivalent to 500 kilotons of TNT.
• On September 3, 2004, an asteroid exploded over the Southern Ocean.
• On June 6, 2002, an asteroid exploded high in the atmosphere over the Mediterranean Sea, between Libya and Crete. The energy of the explosion is estimated as an atomic bomb, but no fragments of the destroyed object were found.
• On June 30, 1908, a famous explosion occurred 5-10 km above the Tunguzka River in Siberia - an asteroid or a comet, i.e. Tunguska meteorite. The object had the energy of hundreds of atomic bombs. It is estimated that 2 million trees have been felled over an area of ​​80 km². Only remoteness from settlements we owe to the absence of victims.